The Prophecy: Buy When Everyone Else Is Terrified
🔮 CoinMoses Prophecy:
The best time to buy Bitcoin is when:
- • News headlines declare "crypto is dead"
- • Your friends mock you for still being interested
- • Bitcoin has crashed 70%+ from all-time highs
- • Social media engagement on crypto is at lows
- • Everyone has "learned their lesson" and left
This sounds counterintuitive. Your instinct screams to buy when Bitcoin is exploding, when CNBC covers it 24/7, when your Uber driver gives you crypto tips.
But that is exactly backwards. The best time to buy is when it feels the worst. Let me show you why.
The Evidence: Data Never Lies
Historical Bear Market Returns
Bought at $3,500 (bottom) → Sold at $64,000 (2021 peak)
Bought at $16,000 (bottom) → Price hit $60,000+ in 2024
Bought at $200 (bottom) → Sold at $19,800 (2017 peak)
Bull Market Top Purchases
Crashed to $3,500 → Took 3 years to break even
Crashed to $16,000 → Took 2+ years to recover
Pattern: Buying during maximum fear (bear markets) produces 10x-100x returns. Buying during maximum greed (bull market tops) produces pain and regret.
When NOT to Buy Bitcoin
During Euphoria
When Bitcoin is on the front page of every news site, your family asks how to buy, and everyone thinks they are a genius for buying—you are late. This is when smart money exits.
When Leverage Is Everywhere
If social media is full of "100x leverage" trades and everyone is getting liquidated daily, the market is overleveraged. A crash is coming.
All-Time Highs After Massive Runs
If Bitcoin just went 10x in a year and is making new ATHs every day, you are buying the top. Wait for the inevitable 50%+ correction.
The Best Strategy: DCA Through Cycles
Since timing the exact bottom is impossible, the best strategy is dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buy consistently regardless of price, but buy MORE during bear markets.
Smart DCA Strategy
Set Your Base Amount
Example: $100/week into Bitcoin, every week, forever
Increase During Fear
When Bitcoin drops 50%+ → Double to $200/week. When everyone is panicking, buy more.
Reduce During Euphoria
When Bitcoin is pumping 50% per month → Drop to $50/week or pause. This is when you should be taking profits, not buying.
Never Go All-In
No matter how bullish you feel, never deploy 100% of your capital. Always keep dry powder for the next crash.
Where Are We in the Cycle?
Bitcoin moves in roughly 4-year cycles tied to the halving event. Understanding where we are helps you adjust your strategy.
Year 1-2 After Halving
Accumulation Phase
Bear market or early recovery. This is prime buying time. Most people are gone, sentiment is terrible, prices are low.
Year 3 After Halving
Bull Market
Prices are rising fast, everyone returns. Keep DCA going but start thinking about exit strategy. Prepare to take profits.
Year 4 After Halving
Peak Euphoria
Blow-off top. Mainstream adoption narrative. This is NOT the time to buy—this is when you should be SELLING.
Post-Peak Crash
Next Accumulation
70%+ crash, capitulation, fear. The cycle restarts. This is when generational wealth is built.